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European Tourism in 2011 - Trends & Prospects (Q3/2011)

The European Travel Commission (ETC) has just published its third quarterly report on European Tourism in 2011 - Trends & Prospects. The following gives a brief overview of the report for the third quarter of 2011:

  • "Signs of economic weakness have led us to revise down our global economic growth forecast to 2.8% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012 (at market exchange rates)."
  • "And risks to this forecast are skewed to the downside, coming from three different fronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis including financial contagion, ii) the possibility that the US falls back into recession, and iii) a hard landing in the emerging economies and China in particular. Each of these three scenarios could be sufficient to tip the world back into recession."
  • "On the whole, the travel recovery is continuing. However, the rate of expansion is slowing with few exceptions."
  • "European airlines have experience robust demand growth through September. With only one exception, weekly growth rates have been above 6% and have averaged a rate of nearly 8% over this period. And seat capacity has nearly kept pace with demand, producing stable load factors."
  • "Through August, room demand has grown nearly 4% and been especially strong in Eastern and Southern Europe, with occupancy rates up 7.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Although occupancy growth has been relatively weak in Western Europe (2.4% YTD), room rates have performed well above average, growing 4.8%."
  • "By the end of 2011, we expect international visits to Europe to have surpassed records set in 2008."
  • "However, the economic landscape presents a challenging environment for travel. We expect European inbound travel to slow markedly, to 2.3% in 2012 from 5.6% in 2011. The core Eurozone countries are most exposed to the downturn and are projected to experience."